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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University2.32+4.46vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston2.04+4.40vs Predicted
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3Tulane University1.57+5.19vs Predicted
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4Jacksonville University1.08+5.80vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.97+5.31vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy0.86+4.85vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.03-0.73vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.00+2.15vs Predicted
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9Tufts University1.71-1.61vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.92+0.77vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.37-5.76vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.57+0.18vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.01-2.99vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.46-5.86vs Predicted
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15George Washington University1.22-5.70vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland0.91-5.31vs Predicted
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17Washington College-0.61-1.38vs Predicted
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18Eckerd College-0.17-3.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.46Cornell University2.320.1%1st Place
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6.4College of Charleston2.040.1%1st Place
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8.19Tulane University1.570.1%1st Place
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9.8Jacksonville University1.080.0%1st Place
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10.31Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.970.0%1st Place
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10.85U. S. Naval Academy0.860.0%1st Place
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6.27Northeastern University2.030.1%1st Place
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10.15Fordham University1.000.0%1st Place
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7.39Tufts University1.710.1%1st Place
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10.77Connecticut College0.920.0%1st Place
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5.24Georgetown University2.370.1%1st Place
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12.18University of Vermont0.570.0%1st Place
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10.01Old Dominion University1.010.0%1st Place
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8.14North Carolina State University1.460.1%1st Place
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9.3George Washington University1.220.1%1st Place
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10.69St. Mary's College of Maryland0.910.0%1st Place
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15.62Washington College-0.610.0%1st Place
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14.21Eckerd College-0.170.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophia Devling | 12.5% | 13.0% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emma Tallman | 8.6% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Lucy Spearman | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Agija Elerte | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 2.1% |
| Brook Wood | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| Aubin Hattendorf | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 6.9% | 4.3% |
| Eva Ermlich | 10.2% | 10.9% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Caroline Sandoval | 4.2% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 2.0% |
| Annika Fedde | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Izzy Wu-Karr | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 2.9% |
| Kelly Bates | 14.4% | 13.0% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Caitlin Derby | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 7.2% |
| Megan Geith | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 1.8% |
| Isabella du Plessis | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Arrieta Angueira Salbidegoitia | 5.2% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 0.9% |
| Lily Flack | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 3.1% |
| Hartley Meyer | 0.5% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 15.9% | 47.9% |
| Lily Schwartz | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 19.3% | 23.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.