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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College2.11+3.76vs Predicted
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2Princeton University2.35+2.23vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.22+1.56vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.57+2.29vs Predicted
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5North Carolina State University2.01-0.02vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College1.70-0.19vs Predicted
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7Christopher Newport University1.63-1.00vs Predicted
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8Hampton University1.77-2.37vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech-0.24+1.69vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.34-0.56vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.37-1.77vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-0.24-1.31vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University0.11-2.87vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.51-4.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.76Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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4.23Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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4.56U. S. Naval Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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6.29Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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4.98North Carolina State University2.010.1%1st Place
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5.81Eckerd College1.700.1%1st Place
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6.0Christopher Newport University1.630.1%1st Place
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5.63Hampton University1.770.1%1st Place
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10.69Virginia Tech-0.240.0%1st Place
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9.44Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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9.23Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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10.69Virginia Tech-0.240.0%1st Place
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10.13Old Dominion University0.110.0%1st Place
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9.25Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Gurnell | 14.0% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 10.5% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 16.6% | 15.0% | 14.4% | 13.4% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Kelly | 13.7% | 14.2% | 14.4% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 2.6% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Adam Larson | 12.7% | 12.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| matthew Monts | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fox | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 9.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Almany | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 13.4% | 20.0% | 36.0% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 12.9% | 15.5% | 17.6% | 14.6% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 10.6% | 13.0% | 16.0% | 16.9% | 10.8% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Almany | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 13.4% | 20.0% | 36.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Younger | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 10.8% | 15.2% | 20.0% | 23.7% | 0.0% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 13.4% | 15.8% | 15.0% | 12.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.