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📊 Prediction Accuracy
64.3%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College2.11+3.80vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.57+4.24vs Predicted
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3Princeton University2.35+1.25vs Predicted
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4Hampton University1.77+1.68vs Predicted
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5North Carolina State University2.01-0.01vs Predicted
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6Eckerd College1.70-0.20vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.22-2.54vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University1.63-2.00vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.51+0.10vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.37-0.63vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.11-1.18vs Predicted
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12Virginia Tech-0.24-1.15vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech-0.24-2.15vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.34-4.35vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.8Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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6.24Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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4.25Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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5.68Hampton University1.770.1%1st Place
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4.99North Carolina State University2.010.1%1st Place
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5.8Eckerd College1.700.1%1st Place
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4.46U. S. Naval Academy2.220.2%1st Place
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6.0Christopher Newport University1.630.1%1st Place
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9.1Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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9.37Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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9.82Old Dominion University0.110.0%1st Place
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10.85Virginia Tech-0.240.0%1st Place
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10.85Virginia Tech-0.240.0%1st Place
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9.65Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Gurnell | 13.2% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 11.4% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 15.1% | 15.5% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 9.9% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Adam Larson | 13.0% | 11.9% | 11.1% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| matthew Monts | 9.0% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 2.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Kelly | 15.1% | 14.6% | 13.1% | 11.6% | 12.8% | 9.9% | 5.2% | 9.4% | 4.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fox | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Kennedy Jones | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 15.6% | 15.6% | 12.2% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 3.0% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 10.0% | 13.0% | 15.5% | 17.0% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Parker Younger | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 10.0% | 12.1% | 15.2% | 20.0% | 17.2% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Almany | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 13.0% | 18.1% | 38.2% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Almany | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 13.0% | 18.1% | 38.2% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 16.3% | 18.4% | 15.9% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.