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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Christopher Newport University1.63+5.01vs Predicted
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2North Carolina State University2.01+3.05vs Predicted
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3Old Dominion University0.11+7.13vs Predicted
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4Washington College2.11+0.82vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College1.70+0.73vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.22-1.52vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.57-0.87vs Predicted
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8Princeton University2.35-3.83vs Predicted
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9Hampton University1.77-3.29vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.34-0.58vs Predicted
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11Christopher Newport University0.37-1.73vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.51-2.79vs Predicted
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13Virginia Tech-0.24-2.14vs Predicted
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14Virginia Tech-0.24-3.14vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.01Christopher Newport University1.630.1%1st Place
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5.05North Carolina State University2.010.1%1st Place
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10.13Old Dominion University0.110.0%1st Place
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4.82Washington College2.110.1%1st Place
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5.73Eckerd College1.700.1%1st Place
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4.48U. S. Naval Academy2.220.1%1st Place
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6.13Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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4.17Princeton University2.350.2%1st Place
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5.71Hampton University1.770.1%1st Place
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9.42Princeton University0.340.0%1st Place
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9.27Christopher Newport University0.370.0%1st Place
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9.21Washington College0.510.0%1st Place
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10.86Virginia Tech-0.240.0%1st Place
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10.86Virginia Tech-0.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Fox | 8.1% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 4.8% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Adam Larson | 11.2% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Younger | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 15.3% | 20.9% | 21.4% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 12.5% | 13.4% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 11.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| matthew Monts | 10.0% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Tanner Kelly | 14.5% | 15.5% | 13.5% | 12.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 9.6% | 7.3% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 15.9% | 16.5% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 1.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 15.1% | 16.7% | 15.2% | 0.0% |
| Laura Smith | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 15.7% | 16.2% | 13.0% | 0.0% |
| Kennedy Jones | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 13.1% | 16.7% | 16.3% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Almany | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 12.6% | 19.8% | 37.0% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Almany | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 12.6% | 19.8% | 37.0% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.