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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.39+0.71vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.70+2.21vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy0.50+4.32vs Predicted
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4University of Southern California0.64+2.91vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-0.24vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.50+1.20vs Predicted
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7University of Washington0.38+0.47vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-0.94vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.59-1.91vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-1.25vs Predicted
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11Western Washington University0.41-3.71vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-1.14-0.79vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-0.54-2.97vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.71Stanford University3.390.6%1st Place
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4.21University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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7.32California Poly Maritime Academy0.500.0%1st Place
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6.91University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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4.76University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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7.2University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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7.47University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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7.06University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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7.09Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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8.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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7.29Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
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11.21University of California at Berkeley-1.140.0%1st Place
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10.03San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 56.7% | 26.6% | 9.6% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 10.7% | 15.6% | 19.5% | 15.6% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 2.6% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 2.1% |
| Morgana Manti | 2.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 1.5% |
| Ted McDonough | 8.1% | 14.4% | 15.2% | 14.1% | 11.2% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Noah Barton | 2.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 2.5% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 8.0% | 2.9% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.6% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 1.8% |
| Aidan Boylan | 3.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 10.4% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 2.5% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 1.7% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 11.5% | 14.4% | 13.1% | 10.9% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.2% | 5.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 6.5% | 3.3% |
| Victoria Chen | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 16.5% | 50.0% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.0% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 10.9% | 11.8% | 22.0% | 22.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.