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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.39+0.70vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego0.50+5.28vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+1.87vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles1.70+0.21vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University-0.54+4.81vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Cruz0.54+1.08vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.64-0.27vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.59-1.04vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy0.50-1.63vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-1.14+1.10vs Predicted
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11University of Washington0.38-3.62vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University0.41-4.39vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-4.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.7Stanford University3.390.6%1st Place
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7.28University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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4.87University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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4.21University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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9.81San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
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7.08University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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6.73University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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6.96Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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7.37California Poly Maritime Academy0.500.0%1st Place
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11.1University of California at Berkeley-1.140.0%1st Place
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7.38University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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7.61Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
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8.89Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 57.2% | 24.9% | 11.1% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Noah Barton | 2.6% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% |
| Ted McDonough | 6.9% | 13.5% | 14.3% | 14.9% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Grant Janov | 10.4% | 16.8% | 19.0% | 14.3% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 12.5% | 21.5% | 21.3% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 5.7% | 2.7% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 1.5% |
| Aidan Boylan | 3.9% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 1.6% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 2.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 3.4% |
| Victoria Chen | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 9.9% | 15.2% | 48.7% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 2.4% | 4.5% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 3.5% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 3.8% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 1.8% | 1.7% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 13.8% | 14.9% | 10.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.