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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.39+0.71vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.70+2.17vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University0.59+4.03vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+0.85vs Predicted
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5University of Washington0.38+2.45vs Predicted
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6California Poly Maritime Academy0.50+1.20vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California0.64-0.26vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-0.89vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.50-1.68vs Predicted
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10University of California at Berkeley-1.14+1.12vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-2.44vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-0.54-1.93vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University0.41-5.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.71Stanford University3.390.6%1st Place
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4.17University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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7.03Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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4.85University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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7.45University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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7.2California Poly Maritime Academy0.500.0%1st Place
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6.74University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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7.11University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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7.32University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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11.12University of California at Berkeley-1.140.0%1st Place
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8.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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10.07San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
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7.66Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 56.2% | 26.2% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 10.9% | 16.5% | 16.8% | 17.4% | 13.5% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.8% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 1.7% |
| Ted McDonough | 7.3% | 13.1% | 16.1% | 15.3% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 11.4% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 7.7% | 2.9% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 2.9% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 2.9% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.4% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 1.8% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.6% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 2.9% |
| Noah Barton | 2.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 3.1% |
| Victoria Chen | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 10.7% | 15.9% | 48.5% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 1.6% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Morgan Burton | 0.7% | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 9.6% | 13.4% | 20.9% | 24.6% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.5% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.