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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.39+0.74vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.70+2.16vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California0.64+3.93vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy0.50+3.28vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.50+2.13vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-1.22vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz0.54+0.02vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University0.59-1.03vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.38-1.38vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University-0.54-0.07vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-2.44vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-1.14-0.78vs Predicted
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13Western Washington University0.41-5.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.74Stanford University3.390.6%1st Place
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4.16University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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6.93University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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7.28California Poly Maritime Academy0.500.0%1st Place
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7.13University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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4.78University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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7.02University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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6.97Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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7.62University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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9.93San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
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8.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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11.22University of California at Berkeley-1.140.0%1st Place
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7.66Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 56.2% | 24.9% | 11.9% | 4.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 10.6% | 16.9% | 18.5% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Morgana Manti | 3.0% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 10.5% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 12.2% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 2.3% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 11.7% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 2.8% |
| Noah Barton | 3.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 1.6% |
| Ted McDonough | 7.8% | 15.2% | 13.9% | 14.9% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Blake Roberts | 4.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 2.1% |
| Aidan Boylan | 3.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 4.8% | 2.7% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 2.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 4.0% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 13.8% | 20.5% | 22.2% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 7.8% |
| Victoria Chen | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 9.3% | 15.5% | 50.4% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.6% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 4.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.