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📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.39+0.71vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.70+2.20vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+1.91vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz0.54+3.18vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.50+2.17vs Predicted
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6University of Southern California0.64+0.77vs Predicted
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7San Diego State University-0.54+2.79vs Predicted
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8University of California at Berkeley-1.14+3.09vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.38-1.34vs Predicted
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10Western Washington University0.41-2.52vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy0.50-3.97vs Predicted
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12Arizona State University0.59-4.83vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-4.15vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.71Stanford University3.390.6%1st Place
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4.2University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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4.91University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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7.18University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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7.17University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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6.77University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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9.79San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
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11.09University of California at Berkeley-1.140.0%1st Place
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7.66University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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7.48Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
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7.03California Poly Maritime Academy0.500.0%1st Place
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7.17Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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8.85Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 58.4% | 23.9% | 10.7% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 10.4% | 16.5% | 18.3% | 15.3% | 12.1% | 10.7% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 6.6% | 13.7% | 14.9% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 12.1% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.9% | 4.7% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 10.7% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 5.4% | 2.9% |
| Noah Barton | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% |
| Morgana Manti | 3.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 4.8% | 1.5% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 9.3% | 12.5% | 22.9% | 20.4% |
| Victoria Chen | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 9.3% | 15.4% | 48.7% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 2.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 4.9% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 3.6% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 3.0% | 4.7% | 7.8% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 5.4% | 2.7% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 1.8% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 1.4% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 15.5% | 10.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.