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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.39+0.71vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.70+2.20vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06+5.82vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University0.59+3.03vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.50+2.10vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University0.41+1.43vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-2.25vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California0.64-1.23vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.38-1.36vs Predicted
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10California Poly Maritime Academy0.50-2.85vs Predicted
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11San Diego State University-0.54-1.19vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-1.14-0.74vs Predicted
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13University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-5.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.71Stanford University3.390.6%1st Place
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4.2University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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8.82Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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7.03Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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7.1University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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7.43Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
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4.75University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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6.77University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
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7.64University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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7.15California Poly Maritime Academy0.500.0%1st Place
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9.81San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
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11.26University of California at Berkeley-1.140.0%1st Place
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7.33University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 57.5% | 24.6% | 10.8% | 4.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Grant Janov | 9.7% | 17.8% | 17.2% | 16.9% | 11.6% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 1.5% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 13.2% | 15.5% | 9.2% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.7% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 6.0% | 2.1% |
| Noah Barton | 3.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 10.1% | 10.5% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 6.2% | 2.2% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 3.1% |
| Ted McDonough | 8.7% | 14.1% | 13.7% | 16.0% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Morgana Manti | 4.0% | 5.3% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 2.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 4.1% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 2.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 2.9% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 10.4% | 13.6% | 20.6% | 19.7% |
| Victoria Chen | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 16.5% | 51.8% |
| Blake Roberts | 2.9% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 6.2% | 2.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.