← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Stanford University3.39+0.70vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Santa Barbara1.42+2.85vs Predicted
-
3University of California at Los Angeles1.70+1.23vs Predicted
-
4University of California at San Diego0.50+3.26vs Predicted
-
5University of Washington0.38+2.46vs Predicted
-
6Western Washington University0.41+1.44vs Predicted
-
7California Poly Maritime Academy0.50+0.15vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-0.87vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Berkeley-1.14+2.14vs Predicted
-
10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-1.28vs Predicted
-
11San Diego State University-0.54-1.20vs Predicted
-
12Arizona State University0.59-4.82vs Predicted
-
13University of Southern California0.64-6.08vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
1.7Stanford University3.390.6%1st Place
-
4.85University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
-
4.23University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
-
7.26University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
-
7.46University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
-
7.44Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
-
7.15California Poly Maritime Academy0.500.0%1st Place
-
7.13University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
-
11.14University of California at Berkeley-1.140.0%1st Place
-
8.72Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
-
9.8San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
-
7.18Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
-
6.92University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 57.6% | 25.7% | 10.1% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ted McDonough | 7.3% | 12.4% | 16.3% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Grant Janov | 9.4% | 17.7% | 16.9% | 16.1% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 5.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Noah Barton | 2.9% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 2.6% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 3.8% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 3.9% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 7.8% | 3.4% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 2.7% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 5.8% | 2.0% |
| Victoria Chen | 0.3% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 15.1% | 50.9% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 1.8% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 16.9% | 9.5% |
| Morgan Burton | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 13.3% | 21.3% | 19.5% |
| Aidan Boylan | 2.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 5.2% | 3.2% |
| Morgana Manti | 3.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.