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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University3.39+0.69vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy0.50+5.24vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego0.50+4.27vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University0.41+3.50vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Barbara1.42-0.28vs Predicted
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6University of Washington0.38+1.53vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.70-2.88vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.54-0.99vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University0.59-1.93vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.06-1.25vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley-1.14+0.06vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-0.54-1.98vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California0.64-6.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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1.69Stanford University3.390.6%1st Place
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7.24California Poly Maritime Academy0.500.0%1st Place
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7.27University of California at San Diego0.500.0%1st Place
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7.5Western Washington University0.410.0%1st Place
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4.72University of California at Santa Barbara1.420.1%1st Place
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7.53University of Washington0.380.0%1st Place
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4.12University of California at Los Angeles1.700.1%1st Place
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7.01University of California at Santa Cruz0.540.0%1st Place
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7.07Arizona State University0.590.0%1st Place
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8.75Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.060.0%1st Place
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11.06University of California at Berkeley-1.140.0%1st Place
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10.02San Diego State University-0.540.0%1st Place
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7.0University of Southern California0.640.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanessa Lahrkamp | 57.3% | 26.3% | 9.3% | 5.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kawika Tumilowicz | 3.2% | 4.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 5.8% | 2.7% |
| Noah Barton | 2.7% | 3.3% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 11.5% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 6.4% | 2.8% |
| Dalton Lovett | 2.1% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 3.7% |
| Ted McDonough | 7.9% | 15.5% | 14.4% | 14.3% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Aragorn Crozier | 2.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 10.4% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 4.0% |
| Grant Janov | 11.1% | 17.9% | 16.8% | 16.9% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Blake Roberts | 3.7% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 2.3% |
| Aidan Boylan | 3.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 11.3% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 2.7% |
| Robert Bloomfield | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 13.8% | 14.5% | 10.7% |
| Victoria Chen | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 17.2% | 45.8% |
| Morgan Burton | 1.0% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 22.4% | 23.3% |
| Morgana Manti | 3.2% | 4.3% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 11.6% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 2.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.