← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+2.81vs Predicted
-
2University of California at Los Angeles1.30+3.05vs Predicted
-
3California Poly Maritime Academy0.91+3.07vs Predicted
-
4Stanford University2.58-1.53vs Predicted
-
5University of Southern California0.58+1.80vs Predicted
-
6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.33+1.53vs Predicted
-
7University of California at San Diego0.79-0.77vs Predicted
-
8University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-0.89vs Predicted
-
9University of California at Berkeley-0.90+1.47vs Predicted
-
10Arizona State University0.32-2.46vs Predicted
-
11Western Washington University0.08-2.98vs Predicted
-
12University of Washington0.25-4.06vs Predicted
-
13San Diego State University-1.80-1.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
3.81University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.2%1st Place
-
5.05University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
-
6.07California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.1%1st Place
-
2.47Stanford University2.580.4%1st Place
-
6.8University of Southern California0.580.1%1st Place
-
7.53Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.330.0%1st Place
-
6.23University of California at San Diego0.790.1%1st Place
-
7.11University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
-
10.47University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
-
7.54Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
-
8.02Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
-
7.94University of Washington0.250.0%1st Place
-
11.97San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Alexander | 16.9% | 18.7% | 16.0% | 14.0% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 8.8% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 11.2% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Kyle Farmer | 5.6% | 6.8% | 10.3% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.2% |
| Sophie Fisher | 35.1% | 25.8% | 17.0% | 10.5% | 6.3% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marlo Bozza | 6.2% | 4.9% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 10.4% | 7.9% | 4.6% | 1.1% |
| Ryan Milne | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 12.7% | 7.8% | 2.0% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| George Soliman | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 0.6% |
| Fiona Wu | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 34.6% | 21.2% |
| Matt Grimsley | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 7.7% | 2.6% |
| Nathan Gerber | 2.4% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 13.8% | 8.0% | 4.5% |
| Zackery Martin | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 14.8% | 9.6% | 2.3% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 6.2% | 15.9% | 64.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.