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📊 Prediction Accuracy
69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.58+1.48vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+1.75vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.30+2.07vs Predicted
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4California Poly Maritime Academy0.91+2.00vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.58+1.81vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.33+1.52vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University0.08+1.07vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-0.85vs Predicted
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9University of Washington0.25-1.11vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.79-3.68vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University0.32-3.62vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-1.80-0.06vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.90-2.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.48Stanford University2.580.4%1st Place
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3.75University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.2%1st Place
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5.07University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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6.0California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.1%1st Place
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6.81University of Southern California0.580.1%1st Place
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7.52Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.330.0%1st Place
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8.07Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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7.15University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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7.89University of Washington0.250.0%1st Place
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6.32University of California at San Diego0.790.1%1st Place
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7.38Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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11.94San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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10.62University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie Fisher | 35.8% | 23.2% | 19.3% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alexander | 16.5% | 19.4% | 16.9% | 13.8% | 11.9% | 9.4% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 7.9% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Kyle Farmer | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 11.6% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Marlo Bozza | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 9.9% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Ryan Milne | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 8.3% | 1.8% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 11.5% | 3.4% |
| George Soliman | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Zackery Martin | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 2.1% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 7.1% | 6.4% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 0.7% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.4% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 2.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 16.1% | 63.9% |
| Fiona Wu | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 13.7% | 31.1% | 23.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.