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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.58+1.46vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy0.91+4.01vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+0.76vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.33+3.62vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego0.79+1.25vs Predicted
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6Western Washington University0.08+2.19vs Predicted
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7University of California at Los Angeles1.30-2.04vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-0.89vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California0.58-2.01vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University0.32-2.44vs Predicted
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11University of Washington0.25-3.43vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-1.80-0.11vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.90-2.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.46Stanford University2.580.4%1st Place
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6.01California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.1%1st Place
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3.76University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.2%1st Place
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7.62Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.330.0%1st Place
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6.25University of California at San Diego0.790.1%1st Place
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8.19Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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4.96University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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7.11University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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6.99University of Southern California0.580.1%1st Place
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7.56Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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7.57University of Washington0.250.0%1st Place
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11.89San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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10.63University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie Fisher | 37.1% | 23.1% | 17.8% | 10.5% | 6.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Farmer | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| David Alexander | 16.8% | 19.3% | 14.8% | 15.6% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Milne | 3.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 10.4% | 12.5% | 7.8% | 2.3% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 6.9% | 6.4% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 10.3% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 3.4% | 0.3% |
| Nathan Gerber | 2.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 11.0% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 11.9% | 3.4% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 10.0% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| George Soliman | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| Marlo Bozza | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 1.0% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 7.7% | 2.2% |
| Zackery Martin | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 2.1% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 6.9% | 15.7% | 63.1% |
| Fiona Wu | 1.1% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 31.9% | 23.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.