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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+2.73vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.30+2.96vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego0.79+3.32vs Predicted
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4Stanford University2.58-1.59vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California0.58+1.75vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley-0.90+4.43vs Predicted
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7San Diego State University-1.80+4.75vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.33-0.51vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Cruz0.48-1.83vs Predicted
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10University of Washington-0.00-1.65vs Predicted
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11Arizona State University0.32-3.68vs Predicted
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12Western Washington University0.08-3.71vs Predicted
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13California Poly Maritime Academy0.91-6.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.73University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.2%1st Place
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4.96University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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6.32University of California at San Diego0.790.0%1st Place
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2.41Stanford University2.580.4%1st Place
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6.75University of Southern California0.580.1%1st Place
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10.43University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
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11.75San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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7.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.330.0%1st Place
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7.17University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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8.35University of Washington-0.000.0%1st Place
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7.32Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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8.29Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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6.02California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Alexander | 17.3% | 18.6% | 15.4% | 17.1% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 9.3% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 4.6% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 3.1% | 0.4% |
| Sophie Fisher | 38.0% | 24.7% | 16.6% | 10.0% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marlo Bozza | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 5.0% | 1.0% |
| Fiona Wu | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 14.8% | 28.7% | 23.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 8.5% | 14.0% | 61.1% |
| Ryan Milne | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 12.5% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 7.3% | 1.5% |
| George Soliman | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 6.2% | 2.0% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 14.8% | 4.2% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 11.9% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 2.1% |
| Nathan Gerber | 2.4% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 12.9% | 15.3% | 11.3% | 4.2% |
| Kyle Farmer | 5.6% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 12.2% | 12.3% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.