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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.58+1.48vs Predicted
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2California Poly Maritime Academy0.91+4.02vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University0.32+4.65vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.33+3.58vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.48+2.07vs Predicted
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6University of Washington0.25+1.74vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.79-0.74vs Predicted
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8Western Washington University0.08+0.14vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.85-5.17vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California0.58-3.13vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles1.30-6.14vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.90-1.42vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.80-1.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.48Stanford University2.580.4%1st Place
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6.02California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.1%1st Place
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7.65Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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7.58Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.330.0%1st Place
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7.07University of California at Santa Cruz0.480.0%1st Place
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7.74University of Washington0.250.0%1st Place
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6.26University of California at San Diego0.790.1%1st Place
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8.14Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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3.83University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.2%1st Place
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6.87University of Southern California0.580.1%1st Place
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4.86University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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10.58University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
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11.93San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie Fisher | 35.5% | 26.2% | 15.9% | 10.6% | 6.1% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Farmer | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 10.3% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.4% | 3.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 13.2% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 7.2% | 1.9% |
| Ryan Milne | 3.6% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 2.0% |
| George Soliman | 4.9% | 4.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 5.7% | 1.5% |
| Zackery Martin | 3.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 10.3% | 2.1% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 6.8% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 5.3% | 3.0% | 0.6% |
| Nathan Gerber | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 13.3% | 14.7% | 11.4% | 2.9% |
| David Alexander | 16.2% | 18.1% | 16.7% | 15.4% | 10.6% | 8.9% | 6.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Marlo Bozza | 5.4% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.9% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 9.1% | 11.5% | 8.4% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 9.7% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 13.6% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Fiona Wu | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 13.6% | 30.2% | 24.1% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 6.9% | 17.3% | 62.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.