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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles1.30+3.63vs Predicted
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2Western Washington University0.08+5.61vs Predicted
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3Stanford University2.58-0.67vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.33+3.02vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.32+1.91vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.85-2.55vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego0.79-1.22vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California-0.10+0.05vs Predicted
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9California Poly Maritime Academy0.91-3.45vs Predicted
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10San Diego State University-1.80+1.53vs Predicted
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11University of Washington-0.00-3.32vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99-1.70vs Predicted
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13University of California at Berkeley-0.90-2.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.63University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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7.61Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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2.33Stanford University2.580.4%1st Place
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7.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.330.0%1st Place
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6.91Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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3.45University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.2%1st Place
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5.78University of California at San Diego0.790.1%1st Place
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8.05University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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5.55California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.1%1st Place
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11.53San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
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7.68University of Washington-0.000.0%1st Place
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10.3University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
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10.14University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 9.8% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 15.4% | 12.1% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 3.7% | 3.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 1.6% |
| Sophie Fisher | 37.9% | 26.9% | 16.5% | 8.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Milne | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 0.5% |
| Matt Grimsley | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 0.5% |
| David Alexander | 19.1% | 20.0% | 20.1% | 13.5% | 10.2% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Edward Ansart | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 15.0% | 12.8% | 7.7% | 3.3% |
| Kyle Farmer | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.7% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 13.6% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 8.0% | 19.2% | 52.6% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 2.4% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 12.5% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 11.0% | 13.0% | 6.2% | 2.4% |
| Ryan Martin | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 15.2% | 25.5% | 20.9% |
| Fiona Wu | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 11.1% | 18.1% | 21.7% | 17.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.