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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.58+1.34vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+1.47vs Predicted
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3California Poly Maritime Academy0.91+2.59vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.33+3.02vs Predicted
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5Arizona State University0.32+1.96vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.79-0.22vs Predicted
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7Western Washington University0.08+0.52vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99+2.07vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California-0.10-0.82vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles1.30-5.37vs Predicted
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11University of Washington-0.00-3.31vs Predicted
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12University of California at Berkeley-0.90-1.91vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.80-1.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.34Stanford University2.580.4%1st Place
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3.47University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.2%1st Place
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5.59California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.1%1st Place
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7.02Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.330.0%1st Place
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6.96Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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5.78University of California at San Diego0.790.1%1st Place
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7.52Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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10.07University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
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8.18University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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4.63University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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7.69University of Washington-0.000.0%1st Place
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10.09University of California at Berkeley-0.900.0%1st Place
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11.67San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie Fisher | 37.0% | 27.2% | 17.4% | 9.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| David Alexander | 18.8% | 19.1% | 20.2% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 8.0% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Farmer | 5.8% | 8.6% | 10.5% | 12.8% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 2.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Milne | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 11.3% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 0.8% |
| Matt Grimsley | 4.3% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 6.4% | 8.7% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 13.5% | 9.3% | 7.2% | 1.9% |
| Ryan Martin | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.6% | 13.9% | 25.8% | 17.6% |
| Edward Ansart | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 15.5% | 8.9% | 3.6% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 12.0% | 12.0% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 2.8% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 11.5% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 6.9% | 2.2% |
| Fiona Wu | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 8.4% | 9.3% | 17.4% | 22.6% | 18.4% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 6.9% | 8.7% | 18.5% | 53.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.