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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Stanford University2.58+1.32vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego0.79+3.83vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara1.85+0.49vs Predicted
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4Western Washington University0.08+3.65vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.33+1.92vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University0.32+1.01vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99+3.01vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California-0.10+0.03vs Predicted
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9University of Washington-0.00-1.07vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles1.30-5.35vs Predicted
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11California Poly Maritime Academy0.91-5.63vs Predicted
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12-0.90-1.88vs Predicted
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13San Diego State University-1.80-1.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.32Stanford University2.580.4%1st Place
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5.83University of California at San Diego0.790.1%1st Place
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3.49University of California at Santa Barbara1.850.2%1st Place
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7.65Western Washington University0.080.0%1st Place
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6.92Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.330.0%1st Place
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7.01Arizona State University0.320.0%1st Place
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10.01University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.0%1st Place
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8.03University of Southern California-0.100.0%1st Place
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7.93University of Washington-0.000.0%1st Place
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4.65University of California at Los Angeles1.300.1%1st Place
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5.37California Poly Maritime Academy0.910.1%1st Place
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10.12-0.900.0%1st Place
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11.67San Diego State University-1.800.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sophie Fisher | 37.9% | 26.7% | 16.7% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Gabriel Reuter | 7.0% | 6.3% | 9.9% | 10.8% | 13.1% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| David Alexander | 18.1% | 21.3% | 17.4% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Gerber | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 1.9% |
| Ryan Milne | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 11.0% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 6.9% | 4.1% | 1.3% |
| Matt Grimsley | 3.9% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 0.6% |
| Ryan Martin | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 15.6% | 24.3% | 17.5% |
| Edward Ansart | 2.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 14.8% | 12.1% | 8.2% | 3.0% |
| Thomas Pentimonti | 2.7% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 8.7% | 3.3% |
| Gideon Burnes Heath | 11.4% | 11.5% | 14.9% | 15.0% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Farmer | 7.1% | 8.5% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Fiona Wu | 0.9% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 7.7% | 11.8% | 16.4% | 23.2% | 18.1% |
| Tegan Smith | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 10.8% | 17.6% | 53.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.