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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.06+6.44vs Predicted
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2University of Miami1.93+9.14vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston2.38+5.17vs Predicted
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4North Carolina State University1.12+8.14vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College2.34+2.18vs Predicted
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6Yale University2.85-0.22vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.20+1.07vs Predicted
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8Stanford University2.89-3.33vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.62+1.03vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.26+0.94vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.58-3.47vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin0.70+2.20vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.83-3.94vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-6.48vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.45-4.27vs Predicted
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16Jacksonville University1.70-5.93vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-7.75vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.17-0.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.44Bowdoin College2.067.2%1st Place
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11.14University of Miami1.932.2%1st Place
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8.17College of Charleston2.386.6%1st Place
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12.14North Carolina State University1.122.4%1st Place
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7.18Dartmouth College2.347.1%1st Place
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5.78Yale University2.8511.9%1st Place
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8.07Georgetown University2.206.3%1st Place
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4.67Stanford University2.8916.0%1st Place
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10.03Fordham University1.623.8%1st Place
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10.94Old Dominion University1.263.4%1st Place
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7.53Boston College2.587.1%1st Place
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14.2University of Wisconsin0.700.9%1st Place
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9.06Tufts University1.834.2%1st Place
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7.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.328.1%1st Place
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10.73University of South Florida1.453.1%1st Place
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10.07Jacksonville University1.703.9%1st Place
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9.25University of California at Santa Barbara1.785.5%1st Place
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17.08University of Texas-1.170.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bonauto | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 7.9% | 2.1% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Usher | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 14.5% | 14.8% | 3.5% |
| Chase Decker | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.9% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Diego Escobar | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Reade Decker | 16.0% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 1.4% |
| Blake Goodwin | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 1.7% |
| Peter Busch | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Mary Castellini | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 10.2% | 13.6% | 30.7% | 10.8% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 1.2% |
| Patrick Igoe | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 4.8% | 1.1% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 5.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.2% | 0.5% |
| Lucas Tenrreiro | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 8.8% | 77.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.