Race 1A

central-series-msm

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Andy Leshaw 7.3% 10.0% 9.4% 9.7% 12.5% 12.5% 12.8% 11.0% 6.8% 5.0% 2.5% 0.5%
Wilson Kaznoski 17.1% 19.0% 18.1% 13.4% 11.7% 8.7% 5.5% 4.0% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Sam Harris 10.0% 8.7% 10.9% 12.1% 11.6% 14.1% 11.1% 10.6% 5.6% 3.3% 1.3% 0.7%
John Polek 26.1% 22.6% 17.3% 14.4% 7.8% 5.9% 3.3% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Henry Poynter 2.4% 3.5% 3.7% 4.1% 6.2% 8.8% 8.1% 10.9% 12.5% 16.0% 12.6% 11.2%
Peter Schnell 16.7% 14.7% 15.8% 13.3% 13.3% 10.0% 7.8% 4.5% 2.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Kate Myler 5.4% 5.3% 6.8% 9.3% 9.2% 9.8% 10.4% 12.8% 11.9% 9.8% 6.2% 3.1%
Martin Keene 1.6% 1.8% 2.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 6.0% 8.7% 9.1% 13.9% 18.9% 26.0%
Camren Conant 1.5% 2.2% 2.2% 2.8% 4.0% 5.1% 8.7% 10.4% 12.3% 15.6% 17.5% 17.7%
Richard Kalich 7.9% 8.4% 10.1% 10.5% 11.2% 11.4% 13.5% 8.9% 9.6% 4.3% 3.3% 0.9%
Brett Tardie 2.6% 1.8% 1.4% 3.8% 5.6% 5.5% 7.5% 8.6% 14.8% 13.7% 19.3% 15.4%
William Procter 1.4% 2.0% 1.6% 2.8% 3.2% 4.4% 5.3% 7.6% 12.6% 16.6% 18.1% 24.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.