Race 3A

central-series-msm

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

50.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
John Polek 25.9% 21.7% 18.9% 13.4% 8.6% 5.6% 2.6% 2.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Wilson Kaznoski 18.3% 18.2% 15.7% 15.6% 11.7% 8.5% 6.3% 3.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Peter Schnell 16.4% 14.5% 16.3% 12.5% 13.4% 11.6% 7.8% 4.3% 1.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Richard Kalich 6.4% 8.8% 9.0% 11.3% 12.0% 11.2% 14.7% 9.8% 8.0% 5.9% 1.8% 1.1%
Andy Leshaw 8.3% 8.8% 9.7% 11.9% 12.7% 11.5% 11.2% 10.0% 7.0% 5.6% 2.7% 0.6%
Kate Myler 4.7% 6.3% 5.3% 7.4% 7.6% 10.7% 11.7% 13.6% 12.7% 10.9% 6.6% 2.5%
Sam Harris 11.0% 10.1% 10.2% 11.7% 13.2% 11.7% 9.9% 10.0% 6.3% 3.6% 1.6% 0.7%
William Procter 1.1% 2.2% 2.1% 4.0% 4.1% 4.3% 5.9% 8.6% 9.8% 13.5% 18.9% 25.5%
Henry Poynter 2.5% 2.8% 3.6% 3.9% 6.0% 9.8% 9.6% 12.0% 14.9% 14.0% 12.6% 8.3%
Brett Tardie 2.3% 2.7% 4.0% 3.1% 3.9% 7.0% 6.5% 10.0% 14.2% 14.9% 17.0% 14.4%
Camren Conant 1.9% 1.7% 2.5% 2.5% 4.4% 4.9% 7.5% 8.2% 11.3% 16.4% 19.5% 19.2%
Martin Keene 1.2% 2.2% 2.7% 2.7% 2.4% 3.2% 6.3% 7.2% 12.3% 13.2% 18.9% 27.7%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.