Race 5A

central-series-msm

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

25.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Peter Schnell 15.6% 14.4% 13.5% 17.3% 12.0% 10.9% 8.4% 4.2% 2.4% 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
Sam Harris 7.9% 10.3% 11.4% 10.9% 12.1% 12.4% 11.9% 9.9% 6.9% 4.8% 1.1% 0.4%
Andy Leshaw 9.3% 7.7% 9.8% 12.2% 11.2% 12.4% 11.4% 11.1% 7.8% 5.0% 1.4% 0.7%
John Polek 26.7% 24.0% 16.1% 11.9% 10.9% 4.3% 3.2% 2.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Henry Poynter 2.5% 2.9% 4.2% 4.3% 5.8% 9.1% 8.4% 10.4% 14.0% 13.6% 14.0% 10.8%
Kate Myler 4.4% 5.2% 7.9% 6.1% 7.8% 9.4% 11.9% 13.4% 14.0% 10.1% 6.9% 2.9%
William Procter 1.9% 2.0% 2.6% 2.6% 3.8% 4.3% 7.0% 8.0% 10.5% 13.6% 20.5% 23.2%
Martin Keene 1.5% 2.1% 2.8% 3.2% 3.1% 4.2% 5.7% 8.0% 10.2% 14.6% 18.0% 26.6%
Richard Kalich 6.3% 8.7% 10.4% 11.1% 14.1% 12.1% 11.7% 11.1% 7.1% 4.4% 2.5% 0.5%
Brett Tardie 2.2% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 4.2% 5.3% 8.1% 9.7% 12.9% 15.6% 16.5% 15.2%
Wilson Kaznoski 19.4% 17.2% 14.9% 14.2% 12.2% 10.2% 5.3% 3.8% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Camren Conant 2.3% 2.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 5.4% 7.0% 8.1% 11.9% 16.9% 18.2% 19.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.