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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Harvard University2.10+6.88vs Predicted
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2Yale University2.42+1.88vs Predicted
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3Bowdoin College1.51+6.57vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.77+3.23vs Predicted
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5Tulane University2.02+1.57vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland1.76+3.57vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.22+2.34vs Predicted
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8Boston University1.14+1.53vs Predicted
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9Georgetown University2.20-2.51vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College1.60-1.77vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.09-4.69vs Predicted
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12Tufts University0.93-1.16vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.56-0.40vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.13-2.11vs Predicted
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15University of Hawaii0.51-2.35vs Predicted
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16Northwestern University0.16-2.92vs Predicted
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17Florida State University0.77-5.91vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont-0.13-3.74vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.88Harvard University2.105.9%1st Place
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3.88Yale University2.4222.9%1st Place
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9.57Bowdoin College1.514.0%1st Place
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7.23Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.777.2%1st Place
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6.57Tulane University2.027.8%1st Place
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9.57St. Mary's College of Maryland1.763.6%1st Place
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9.34Northeastern University1.224.2%1st Place
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9.53Boston University1.144.8%1st Place
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6.49Georgetown University2.208.6%1st Place
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8.23Dartmouth College1.606.4%1st Place
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6.31Boston College2.0910.2%1st Place
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10.84Tufts University0.932.9%1st Place
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12.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges0.562.1%1st Place
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11.89Fordham University1.132.4%1st Place
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12.65University of Hawaii0.511.8%1st Place
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13.08Northwestern University0.161.2%1st Place
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11.09Florida State University0.772.4%1st Place
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14.26University of Vermont-0.131.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cordelia Burn | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
Carmen Cowles | 22.9% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Kyra Phelan | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
Brooke Schmelz | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Samantha Gardner | 7.8% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Madison Bashaw | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 1.7% |
Eva Ermlich | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
Tiare Sierra | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
Piper Holthus | 8.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Taylor Eastman | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
Caroline Sibilly | 10.2% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Haley Andreasen | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 4.0% |
Brook Wood | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 13.4% |
Elizabeth Cutler | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% |
Martha Schuessler | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 11.1% | 13.4% | 12.3% |
Grace Bray | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 15.1% | 17.2% |
Katie Nelson | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 5.1% |
Elizabeth Amelotte | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 29.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.