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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.30+3.16vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.90+3.12vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.29+1.17vs Predicted
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41.15+3.12vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.54+0.97vs Predicted
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6University of Wisconsin1.11+1.12vs Predicted
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7Princeton University0.70+1.18vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College0.96-0.49vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University2.12-4.40vs Predicted
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10The Citadel0.20-0.61vs Predicted
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11SUNY Stony Brook-0.42-0.39vs Predicted
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12University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.27-0.01vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin1.11-5.88vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-8.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.16Roger Williams University2.300.2%1st Place
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5.12Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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4.17Brown University2.290.2%1st Place
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7.121.150.0%1st Place
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5.97Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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7.12University of Wisconsin1.110.1%1st Place
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8.18Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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7.51Connecticut College0.960.0%1st Place
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4.6Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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9.39The Citadel0.200.0%1st Place
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10.61SUNY Stony Brook-0.420.0%1st Place
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11.99University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.270.0%1st Place
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7.12University of Wisconsin1.110.1%1st Place
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5.07U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pfrang | 16.9% | 14.9% | 16.1% | 11.0% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 11.3% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 11.5% | 11.9% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Katharine Doble | 17.5% | 14.7% | 13.5% | 12.3% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olin Guck | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 5.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 4.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Abe Weston | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 4.7% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 11.8% | 14.9% | 15.6% | 11.4% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| Will Priebe | 14.1% | 14.3% | 11.9% | 13.3% | 10.2% | 11.4% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kenneth Buck | 2.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 13.0% | 19.1% | 20.4% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Schaefer | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 8.7% | 15.5% | 32.5% | 20.2% | 0.0% |
| Andy Giaya | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 64.2% | 0.0% |
| Abe Weston | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 10.2% | 12.3% | 10.7% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.