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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.30+3.16vs Predicted
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2Webb Institute1.54+4.08vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.90+2.10vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.29+0.16vs Predicted
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51.15+1.94vs Predicted
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6U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-1.03vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University2.12-2.47vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College0.96-0.47vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin1.11-1.75vs Predicted
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10Princeton University0.70-1.78vs Predicted
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11The Citadel0.20-1.70vs Predicted
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12University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.27-0.04vs Predicted
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13SUNY Stony Brook-0.42-2.18vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.11-6.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.16Roger Williams University2.300.2%1st Place
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6.08Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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5.1Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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4.16Brown University2.290.2%1st Place
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6.941.150.1%1st Place
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4.97U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.1%1st Place
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4.53Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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7.53Connecticut College0.960.0%1st Place
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7.25University of Wisconsin1.110.1%1st Place
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8.22Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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9.3The Citadel0.200.0%1st Place
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11.96University of Massachusetts at Amherst-1.270.0%1st Place
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10.82SUNY Stony Brook-0.420.0%1st Place
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7.25University of Wisconsin1.110.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pfrang | 16.4% | 16.6% | 13.0% | 13.9% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 6.8% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 10.4% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katharine Doble | 16.8% | 14.5% | 15.3% | 12.7% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olin Guck | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 11.2% | 9.3% | 4.3% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 11.4% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 12.4% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Will Priebe | 14.7% | 14.8% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 13.3% | 12.9% | 6.1% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Abe Weston | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 5.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.5% | 12.9% | 13.4% | 15.5% | 9.9% | 3.7% | 0.0% |
| Kenneth Buck | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 14.8% | 18.7% | 18.5% | 7.6% | 0.0% |
| Andy Giaya | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 18.8% | 61.5% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Schaefer | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.7% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 13.4% | 33.7% | 23.7% | 0.0% |
| Abe Weston | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 12.4% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 5.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.