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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University2.29+3.13vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.30+2.16vs Predicted
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31.15+4.16vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93+1.06vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University2.12-0.48vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.90-0.91vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College0.96+0.50vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.11-0.84vs Predicted
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9The Citadel0.20+0.53vs Predicted
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10SUNY Stony Brook-0.42+0.71vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.70-2.85vs Predicted
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12University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.95-0.38vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin1.11-5.84vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.54-7.79vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.13Brown University2.290.2%1st Place
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4.16Roger Williams University2.300.2%1st Place
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7.161.150.0%1st Place
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5.06U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.1%1st Place
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4.52Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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5.09Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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7.5Connecticut College0.960.1%1st Place
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7.16University of Wisconsin1.110.1%1st Place
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9.53The Citadel0.200.0%1st Place
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10.71SUNY Stony Brook-0.420.0%1st Place
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8.15Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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11.62University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.950.0%1st Place
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7.16University of Wisconsin1.110.1%1st Place
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6.21Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katharine Doble | 17.6% | 14.2% | 15.1% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kyle Pfrang | 16.9% | 15.4% | 14.5% | 13.8% | 11.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olin Guck | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 14.0% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 8.9% | 5.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 10.8% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 9.8% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Will Priebe | 14.7% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 8.6% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 11.5% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 7.2% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Abe Weston | 5.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Kenneth Buck | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 14.5% | 18.6% | 21.6% | 10.3% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Schaefer | 0.9% | 1.0% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 14.2% | 28.2% | 28.2% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 14.9% | 13.6% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Kai Latham | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 9.9% | 20.3% | 51.7% | 0.0% |
| Abe Weston | 5.2% | 6.8% | 3.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 6.2% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 11.2% | 8.2% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.