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📊 Prediction Accuracy
42.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.30+3.16vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.90+3.15vs Predicted
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3Brown University2.29+1.18vs Predicted
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4University of Wisconsin1.11+3.22vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.54+0.98vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University2.12-1.53vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.93-2.01vs Predicted
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8The Citadel0.20+1.47vs Predicted
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91.15-1.82vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.96-2.44vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.70-2.90vs Predicted
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12SUNY Stony Brook-0.42-1.15vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin1.11-5.78vs Predicted
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14University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.95-2.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.16Roger Williams University2.300.2%1st Place
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5.15Tufts University1.900.1%1st Place
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4.18Brown University2.290.2%1st Place
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7.22University of Wisconsin1.110.0%1st Place
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5.98Webb Institute1.540.1%1st Place
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4.47Northeastern University2.120.1%1st Place
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4.99U. S. Coast Guard Academy1.930.1%1st Place
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9.47The Citadel0.200.0%1st Place
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7.181.150.1%1st Place
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7.56Connecticut College0.960.1%1st Place
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8.1Princeton University0.700.0%1st Place
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10.85SUNY Stony Brook-0.420.0%1st Place
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7.22University of Wisconsin1.110.0%1st Place
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11.68University of Massachusetts at Amherst-0.950.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Pfrang | 16.2% | 15.9% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 11.2% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katharine Doble | 16.6% | 15.0% | 14.2% | 13.0% | 12.0% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Abe Weston | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Everett Botwinick | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Will Priebe | 14.8% | 13.6% | 14.7% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Whiteway | 12.3% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 12.5% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kenneth Buck | 1.4% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 10.5% | 11.3% | 19.3% | 22.0% | 8.5% | 0.0% |
| Olin Guck | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 11.1% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Fritz Baldauf | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 13.6% | 11.1% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 0.0% |
| Ossian Kamal | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 12.2% | 15.9% | 12.4% | 9.5% | 3.4% | 0.0% |
| Jessica Schaefer | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 14.6% | 28.3% | 29.0% | 0.0% |
| Abe Weston | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Kai Latham | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 10.0% | 20.5% | 52.6% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.