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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego-0.58+4.38vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California-0.10+2.11vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University-0.90+3.61vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Cruz-0.99+2.97vs Predicted
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5University of California at San Diego-1.71+4.44vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-1.64+3.50vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26+0.95vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-1.53+0.70vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego-0.97-2.00vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-2.32+1.73vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.13+0.15vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-0.54-6.53vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46-4.20vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-2.42-1.80vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.99-4.38vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34-4.13vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-3.78-1.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.38University of California at San Diego-0.580.1%1st Place
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4.11University of Southern California-0.100.2%1st Place
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6.61Arizona State University-0.900.1%1st Place
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6.97University of California at Santa Cruz-0.990.1%1st Place
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9.44University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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9.5University of California at San Diego-1.640.0%1st Place
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7.95Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.1%1st Place
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8.7Arizona State University-1.530.1%1st Place
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7.0University of California at San Diego-0.970.1%1st Place
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11.73University of California at San Diego-2.320.0%1st Place
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11.15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.130.0%1st Place
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5.47San Diego State University-0.540.1%1st Place
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8.8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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12.2University of California at Los Angeles-2.420.0%1st Place
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10.62University of California at San Diego-1.990.0%1st Place
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11.87Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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15.5Arizona State University-3.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobie Bloom | 12.3% | 13.1% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Ansart | 19.4% | 16.2% | 12.7% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 8.8% | 7.3% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Martin | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Ian Johnston | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.0% |
| Emma Kalway | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Macy Rowe | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 0.4% |
| Sean Kenealy | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% |
| Andrew Keller | 5.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Michael Nodini | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 11.6% | 15.0% | 5.9% |
| Walden Hillegass | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 5.7% |
| Morgan Burton | 11.3% | 12.5% | 12.9% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Briar | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Aidan Araoz | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 13.1% | 11.9% | 17.4% | 9.3% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 3.2% |
| Colin Thompson | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 12.6% | 14.4% | 8.2% |
| Gillian Cate | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 7.2% | 12.4% | 61.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.