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📊 Prediction Accuracy
52.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California-0.10+2.63vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University-0.54+2.80vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26+4.29vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego-0.58+1.13vs Predicted
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5Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46+2.78vs Predicted
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6Arizona State University-0.90+0.24vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-1.64+1.68vs Predicted
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8Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.13+2.19vs Predicted
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9Arizona State University-1.53-0.70vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Cruz-2.34+1.05vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-1.71-1.99vs Predicted
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12University of California at San Diego-1.99-2.16vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-2.42-1.48vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-2.60-1.88vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-2.32-3.97vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34-4.80vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-3.78-1.80vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.63University of Southern California-0.100.2%1st Place
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4.8San Diego State University-0.540.1%1st Place
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7.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.1%1st Place
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5.13University of California at San Diego-0.580.1%1st Place
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7.78Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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6.24Arizona State University-0.900.1%1st Place
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8.68University of California at San Diego-1.640.0%1st Place
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10.19Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.130.0%1st Place
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8.3Arizona State University-1.530.0%1st Place
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11.05University of California at Santa Cruz-2.340.0%1st Place
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9.01University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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9.84University of California at San Diego-1.990.0%1st Place
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11.52University of California at Los Angeles-2.420.0%1st Place
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12.12University of California at San Diego-2.600.0%1st Place
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11.03University of California at San Diego-2.320.0%1st Place
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11.2Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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15.2Arizona State University-3.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edward Ansart | 23.3% | 16.9% | 16.1% | 12.7% | 9.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Burton | 14.4% | 13.5% | 11.0% | 14.3% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Macy Rowe | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| Tobie Bloom | 13.2% | 12.6% | 11.2% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nathan Briar | 5.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Mitchell Powers | 8.3% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Emma Kalway | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 0.5% |
| Walden Hillegass | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 3.3% |
| Sean Kenealy | 3.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Maximus Suh | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 5.4% |
| Ian Johnston | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 2.0% |
| Aidan Araoz | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 8.0% |
| Maria Guinness | 1.2% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 12.5% | 17.4% | 9.8% |
| Michael Nodini | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 11.7% | 5.3% |
| Colin Thompson | 1.9% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 6.7% |
| Gillian Cate | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 12.8% | 56.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.