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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at San Diego-0.58+3.90vs Predicted
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2San Diego State University-0.54+2.83vs Predicted
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3Arizona State University-0.90+3.02vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.26+3.25vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California-0.10-1.29vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego-1.64+2.78vs Predicted
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7University of California at San Diego-2.32+4.08vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-1.530.00vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.13+1.56vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego-2.60+1.98vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.46-2.96vs Predicted
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12University of California at Santa Cruz-2.34-0.90vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.34-1.78vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.71-5.00vs Predicted
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15University of California at San Diego-1.99-5.14vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-2.42-4.56vs Predicted
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17Arizona State University-3.78-1.78vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.9University of California at San Diego-0.580.1%1st Place
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4.83San Diego State University-0.540.1%1st Place
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6.02Arizona State University-0.900.1%1st Place
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7.25Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.260.1%1st Place
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3.71University of Southern California-0.100.2%1st Place
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8.78University of California at San Diego-1.640.0%1st Place
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11.08University of California at San Diego-2.320.0%1st Place
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8.0Arizona State University-1.530.1%1st Place
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10.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.130.0%1st Place
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11.98University of California at San Diego-2.600.0%1st Place
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8.04Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.460.1%1st Place
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11.1University of California at Santa Cruz-2.340.0%1st Place
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11.22Cal Poly University S.L.O.-2.340.0%1st Place
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9.0University of California at San Diego-1.710.0%1st Place
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9.86University of California at San Diego-1.990.0%1st Place
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11.44University of California at Los Angeles-2.420.0%1st Place
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15.22Arizona State University-3.780.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobie Bloom | 13.6% | 12.9% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Burton | 13.9% | 13.9% | 11.3% | 13.7% | 10.7% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 8.4% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% |
| Macy Rowe | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Edward Ansart | 22.5% | 19.9% | 14.4% | 12.2% | 8.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emma Kalway | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 0.9% |
| Michael Nodini | 2.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 9.1% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 4.4% |
| Sean Kenealy | 6.4% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Walden Hillegass | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 9.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 3.5% |
| Maria Guinness | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 15.4% | 9.3% |
| Nathan Briar | 5.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Maximus Suh | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 12.7% | 5.4% |
| Colin Thompson | 2.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 7.0% |
| Ian Johnston | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| Cassie Halaszynski | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| Aidan Araoz | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 7.4% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 7.2% |
| Gillian Cate | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 12.2% | 57.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.