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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College2.34+6.24vs Predicted
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2Tufts University1.83+7.21vs Predicted
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3Yale University2.85+2.84vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.62+6.27vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston2.38+3.22vs Predicted
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6Bowdoin College2.06+1.41vs Predicted
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7Jacksonville University1.70+3.01vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-0.45vs Predicted
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9Stanford University2.89-4.35vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida1.45+0.53vs Predicted
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11Boston College2.58-3.46vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.26-1.14vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.20-5.03vs Predicted
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14North Carolina State University1.12-1.64vs Predicted
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15University of Miami1.93-3.78vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin0.70-2.11vs Predicted
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17University of California at Santa Barbara1.78-7.77vs Predicted
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18University of Texas-1.17-1.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.24Dartmouth College2.348.1%1st Place
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9.21Tufts University1.834.0%1st Place
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5.84Yale University2.8511.8%1st Place
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10.27Fordham University1.623.6%1st Place
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8.22College of Charleston2.385.5%1st Place
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7.41Bowdoin College2.067.5%1st Place
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10.01Jacksonville University1.703.3%1st Place
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7.55U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.326.6%1st Place
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4.65Stanford University2.8917.1%1st Place
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10.53University of South Florida1.453.6%1st Place
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7.54Boston College2.587.4%1st Place
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10.86Old Dominion University1.262.8%1st Place
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7.97Georgetown University2.207.6%1st Place
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12.36North Carolina State University1.121.8%1st Place
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11.22University of Miami1.932.5%1st Place
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13.89University of Wisconsin0.701.2%1st Place
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9.23University of California at Santa Barbara1.784.9%1st Place
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17.0University of Texas-1.170.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Decker | 8.1% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Kurt Stuebe | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Stephan Baker | 11.8% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Patrick Dolan | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 5.5% | 1.2% |
| Benjamin Dufour | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Sam Bonauto | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Igoe | 3.3% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 0.9% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Reade Decker | 17.1% | 14.8% | 13.2% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zachariah Schemel | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 1.8% |
| Peter Busch | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Blake Goodwin | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 1.6% |
| Diego Escobar | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Benjamin Usher | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 16.1% | 4.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 2.1% |
| Mary Castellini | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 12.5% | 29.5% | 11.7% |
| Jonathan Seawards | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 0.2% |
| Lucas Tenrreiro | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 4.9% | 8.6% | 75.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.