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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+3.91vs Predicted
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2Salve Regina University1.16+7.04vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.73+4.23vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College1.11+5.38vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.00+4.81vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.28+2.90vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.57+0.77vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63-0.31vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.34-0.40vs Predicted
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10Boston College2.82-6.02vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont1.89-4.23vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.18-5.98vs Predicted
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13Boston University1.44-4.44vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan0.10-1.62vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida1.24-6.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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9.04Salve Regina University1.160.0%1st Place
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7.23Brown University1.730.1%1st Place
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9.38Connecticut College1.110.0%1st Place
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9.81Tufts University1.000.0%1st Place
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8.9Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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7.77Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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7.69Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.1%1st Place
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8.6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.340.0%1st Place
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3.98Boston College2.820.2%1st Place
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6.77University of Vermont1.890.1%1st Place
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6.02University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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8.56Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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12.38University of Michigan0.100.0%1st Place
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8.98University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bornarth | 15.0% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Pearl Lattanzi | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 9.9% | 7.4% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.4% |
| Aili Moffet | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 9.4% |
| Meredith Broadus | 3.8% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 14.1% | 10.9% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 3.9% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 8.7% | 5.3% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 7.3% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.7% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 2.5% |
| Brooke Barry | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 4.0% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 19.2% | 19.0% | 13.5% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Grace Gear | 6.8% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Torrey Chisari | 9.2% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 4.1% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 14.1% | 43.7% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 6.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.