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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.45+3.90vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont1.89+4.58vs Predicted
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3Boston College2.82+0.88vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.73+3.25vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania2.18+0.90vs Predicted
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6Salve Regina University1.16+3.30vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College1.11+2.35vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.63-0.35vs Predicted
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9Boston University1.44-0.78vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.00-0.13vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.57-3.15vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.28-2.92vs Predicted
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13University of South Florida1.24-3.78vs Predicted
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14University of Michigan0.10-1.65vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.34-6.42vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.450.1%1st Place
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6.58University of Vermont1.890.1%1st Place
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3.88Boston College2.820.2%1st Place
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7.25Brown University1.730.1%1st Place
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5.9University of Pennsylvania2.180.1%1st Place
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9.3Salve Regina University1.160.0%1st Place
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9.35Connecticut College1.110.0%1st Place
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7.65Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.630.1%1st Place
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8.22Boston University1.440.0%1st Place
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9.87Tufts University1.000.0%1st Place
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7.85Fordham University1.570.1%1st Place
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9.08Old Dominion University1.280.0%1st Place
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9.22University of South Florida1.240.0%1st Place
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12.35University of Michigan0.100.0%1st Place
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8.58Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.340.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bornarth | 14.9% | 13.4% | 14.1% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Grace Gear | 7.1% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Caroline Sibilly | 21.1% | 16.6% | 15.1% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 1.8% |
| Torrey Chisari | 10.6% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.3% |
| Pearl Lattanzi | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 10.1% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 7.0% |
| Aili Moffet | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 10.7% | 8.9% |
| Claire Siegel-Wilson | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.6% |
| Tiare Sierra | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 3.1% |
| Meredith Broadus | 3.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 12.4% | 11.0% |
| Elizabeth Cutler | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 2.6% |
| Elizabeth Gildea | 3.9% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.5% | 5.9% |
| Emma Shakespeare | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 10.6% | 7.0% |
| Luciana Solorzano | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 9.0% | 13.0% | 43.2% |
| Brooke Barry | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 4.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.