Race 11A

emily-wick

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

21.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
14
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Caroline Sibilly 20.7% 19.1% 13.9% 10.8% 9.4% 7.4% 5.7% 5.1% 3.3% 1.8% 1.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Torrey Chisari 12.1% 11.7% 9.9% 9.8% 9.9% 8.0% 9.5% 8.3% 6.7% 5.1% 3.4% 2.8% 1.6% 1.2%
Meredith Broadus 4.0% 3.2% 3.6% 4.4% 5.3% 4.6% 4.4% 5.2% 5.3% 6.8% 8.6% 10.8% 16.4% 17.4%
Kay Brunsvold 5.4% 8.7% 9.1% 9.7% 7.2% 7.9% 7.8% 9.1% 7.5% 7.2% 6.8% 6.1% 5.1% 2.4%
Charlotte Costikyan 5.9% 6.6% 7.3% 8.4% 7.8% 6.8% 8.5% 7.7% 7.9% 7.8% 8.0% 7.1% 5.8% 4.4%
Pearl Lattanzi 4.3% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 5.4% 4.9% 6.6% 7.2% 7.7% 7.6% 7.4% 9.9% 12.4% 15.8%
Elizabeth Gildea 5.0% 4.2% 7.0% 5.1% 4.6% 7.7% 6.6% 5.4% 8.7% 7.2% 9.2% 9.9% 9.4% 10.0%
Aili Moffet 4.2% 4.4% 4.1% 3.3% 6.0% 6.1% 5.2% 5.4% 6.5% 7.3% 9.5% 9.6% 11.6% 16.8%
Brooke Barry 4.8% 4.2% 4.4% 6.0% 4.8% 6.8% 5.8% 8.3% 7.6% 9.2% 8.6% 10.2% 10.5% 8.8%
Emma Snead 9.4% 8.6% 10.6% 10.3% 9.3% 8.4% 8.7% 8.2% 6.9% 7.4% 5.2% 3.8% 2.5% 0.7%
Elizabeth Cutler 5.6% 6.2% 5.1% 6.4% 6.6% 7.9% 7.7% 7.6% 8.7% 7.5% 8.7% 8.0% 7.0% 7.0%
Claire Siegel-Wilson 6.0% 5.0% 6.8% 7.1% 7.9% 9.1% 8.2% 7.3% 7.9% 8.4% 7.5% 5.9% 6.7% 6.2%
Grace Gear 7.9% 9.3% 7.5% 8.5% 8.6% 8.9% 8.5% 8.4% 6.5% 7.8% 7.4% 5.2% 3.3% 2.2%
Tiare Sierra 4.7% 5.1% 7.1% 6.7% 7.2% 5.5% 6.8% 6.8% 8.8% 8.9% 8.4% 9.7% 7.3% 7.0%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.