Race 3B

emily-wick

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Libby Redmond 14.7% 13.6% 14.5% 10.8% 11.0% 8.8% 7.4% 7.1% 4.7% 2.3% 2.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Madeleine Rice 12.9% 13.9% 11.7% 11.2% 11.6% 8.2% 7.5% 6.6% 5.4% 5.0% 2.7% 2.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%
Katherine McNamara 14.9% 14.1% 12.5% 10.8% 10.7% 9.4% 9.0% 7.4% 3.8% 3.8% 1.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Sydney Monahan 12.7% 14.3% 10.6% 12.2% 8.9% 8.8% 8.5% 7.6% 5.7% 5.3% 2.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
Caylin Schnoor 5.2% 5.7% 6.3% 5.2% 5.1% 6.4% 7.1% 6.6% 9.7% 10.2% 11.5% 9.5% 7.1% 4.1% 0.3%
Celia Houston 5.6% 6.9% 5.9% 6.4% 6.5% 10.6% 8.9% 9.8% 7.8% 9.8% 9.0% 6.6% 4.6% 1.5% 0.1%
Haley Andreasen 7.7% 6.2% 7.8% 8.1% 7.5% 7.5% 11.6% 7.0% 10.0% 7.2% 8.1% 5.1% 4.9% 1.1% 0.2%
Hailey Pemberton 4.4% 3.8% 4.3% 6.0% 6.4% 5.1% 6.2% 7.3% 8.6% 8.7% 11.7% 12.9% 9.0% 5.0% 0.6%
Olivia Lowthian 6.5% 6.2% 8.1% 8.8% 9.8% 8.2% 8.2% 9.4% 9.9% 8.9% 5.2% 5.8% 3.5% 1.3% 0.2%
Elizabeth Amelotte 2.1% 1.9% 2.7% 2.1% 2.7% 3.6% 4.3% 5.2% 5.3% 7.5% 9.4% 12.5% 18.8% 19.0% 2.9%
Megan Geith 4.7% 5.8% 5.7% 6.6% 7.6% 6.8% 6.8% 9.4% 9.2% 8.5% 7.9% 8.8% 7.7% 3.7% 0.8%
Madeline Stull 2.5% 1.8% 2.7% 2.8% 4.2% 5.0% 5.6% 5.8% 5.8% 9.8% 9.7% 14.7% 16.9% 11.7% 1.0%
Katherine Simcoe 0.8% 0.5% 1.5% 1.6% 1.2% 3.0% 2.7% 2.3% 3.8% 3.8% 5.9% 7.0% 16.1% 41.5% 8.3%
Caroline Sandoval 5.2% 5.3% 5.4% 7.3% 6.4% 8.3% 5.9% 7.9% 10.0% 8.9% 10.7% 8.7% 6.5% 3.3% 0.2%
Yitian Zhu 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 1.5% 2.3% 7.4% 85.4%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.