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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+5.19vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.66+7.22vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+2.20vs Predicted
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4Harvard University4.52+2.33vs Predicted
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5Boston College4.92-0.11vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.62+3.55vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63+2.57vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.58+1.55vs Predicted
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9Cornell University2.89+2.94vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.93-1.61vs Predicted
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11Tufts University3.37-0.61vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College4.15-4.42vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48-2.98vs Predicted
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14Washington College3.65-4.71vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University3.67-5.59vs Predicted
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16Stanford University3.90-7.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.19Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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9.22U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
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5.2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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6.33Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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4.89Boston College4.920.1%1st Place
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9.55University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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9.57Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.0%1st Place
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9.55Dartmouth College3.580.0%1st Place
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11.94Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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8.39College of Charleston3.930.1%1st Place
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10.39Tufts University3.370.0%1st Place
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7.58SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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10.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.0%1st Place
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9.29Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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9.41Old Dominion University3.670.0%1st Place
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8.5Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Blouin | 9.8% | 9.8% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Jason Carminati | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.2% |
| Michael Menninger | 14.9% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Alan Palmer | 8.8% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.7% |
| Taylor Canfield | 14.9% | 15.0% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Coleman Bowen | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% |
| Eamon Glackin | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.2% |
| Edward Glackin | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% |
| Vincent Andrews | 2.3% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 15.9% | 25.9% |
| Zeke Horowitz | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 3.0% |
| William Hutchings | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 10.0% | 12.6% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 10.8% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.1% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 4.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 5.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.