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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+4.09vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49+4.25vs Predicted
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3Harvard University4.52+3.17vs Predicted
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4Boston College4.92+1.00vs Predicted
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5Washington College3.65+4.46vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College4.15+1.59vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+3.12vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63+1.29vs Predicted
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9Tufts University3.37+1.34vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.90-1.54vs Predicted
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11College of Charleston3.93-2.65vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont3.62-2.52vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University3.67-3.68vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.58-4.52vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.66-5.58vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.89-3.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.09St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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6.25Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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6.17Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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5.0Boston College4.920.1%1st Place
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9.46Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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7.59SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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10.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.0%1st Place
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9.29Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.0%1st Place
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10.34Tufts University3.370.0%1st Place
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8.46Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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8.35College of Charleston3.930.1%1st Place
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9.48University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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9.32Old Dominion University3.670.0%1st Place
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9.48Dartmouth College3.580.0%1st Place
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9.42U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
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12.17Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 13.9% | 14.0% | 12.5% | 12.0% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Blouin | 10.0% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% |
| Alan Palmer | 10.9% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Taylor Canfield | 13.8% | 14.7% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 5.9% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 1.7% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 10.1% |
| Eamon Glackin | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% |
| William Hutchings | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 12.2% |
| Mateo Vargas | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% |
| Zeke Horowitz | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 3.2% |
| Coleman Bowen | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.7% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 3.7% | 3.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% |
| Edward Glackin | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% |
| Jason Carminati | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 4.9% |
| Vincent Andrews | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 14.6% | 27.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.