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📊 Prediction Accuracy
18.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1College of Charleston3.93+7.21vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+3.11vs Predicted
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3Harvard University4.52+3.15vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont3.62+5.63vs Predicted
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5Washington College3.65+4.44vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.37+4.44vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.67+2.44vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.49-1.88vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+0.96vs Predicted
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10Boston College4.92-5.07vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.90-2.53vs Predicted
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12Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.63-2.49vs Predicted
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13Cornell University2.89-0.98vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.58-4.48vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College4.15-7.38vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy3.66-6.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.21College of Charleston3.930.0%1st Place
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5.11St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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6.15Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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9.63University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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9.44Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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10.44Tufts University3.370.0%1st Place
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9.44Old Dominion University3.670.1%1st Place
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6.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.490.1%1st Place
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9.96U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.0%1st Place
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4.93Boston College4.920.1%1st Place
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8.47Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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9.51Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.630.0%1st Place
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12.02Cornell University2.890.0%1st Place
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9.52Dartmouth College3.580.0%1st Place
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7.62SUNY Maritime College4.150.1%1st Place
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9.42U. S. Naval Academy3.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeke Horowitz | 4.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.2% |
| Michael Menninger | 14.6% | 14.7% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Alan Palmer | 10.6% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Coleman Bowen | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 7.8% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% |
| William Hutchings | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 10.1% | 11.7% | 11.5% |
| Gavin Rudolph | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.1% |
| Samuel Blouin | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 10.3% |
| Taylor Canfield | 14.1% | 11.6% | 13.2% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 9.2% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Mateo Vargas | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.6% |
| Eamon Glackin | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.0% |
| Vincent Andrews | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 13.8% | 26.8% |
| Edward Glackin | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 7.5% |
| Shawn Murray | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| Jason Carminati | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 4.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.