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📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Cruz0.76+2.99vs Predicted
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2University of California at Berkeley0.74+2.03vs Predicted
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3Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+2.10vs Predicted
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4University of California at Irvine0.43+0.92vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.58-0.53vs Predicted
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6University of California at Irvine-0.80+2.65vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine-0.84+1.68vs Predicted
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8University of California at Irvine-1.55+3.00vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48+1.56vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-0.96-1.05vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47-3.29vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.29-1.87vs Predicted
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13University of California at Los Angeles-2.10-2.42vs Predicted
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14University of California at Davis-2.16-1.43vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis-2.00-2.91vs Predicted
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16University of California at Davis-2.19-3.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.99University of California at Santa Cruz0.7617.5%1st Place
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4.03University of California at Berkeley0.7417.6%1st Place
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5.1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8311.7%1st Place
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4.92University of California at Irvine0.4312.8%1st Place
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4.47University of California at Santa Cruz0.5815.2%1st Place
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8.65University of California at Irvine-0.803.4%1st Place
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8.68University of California at Irvine-0.843.5%1st Place
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11.0University of California at Irvine-1.551.7%1st Place
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10.56Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.481.6%1st Place
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8.95University of California at Los Angeles-0.963.2%1st Place
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7.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.474.8%1st Place
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10.13University of California at Los Angeles-1.292.4%1st Place
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10.58University of California at Los Angeles-2.101.6%1st Place
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12.57University of California at Davis-2.160.8%1st Place
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12.09University of California at Davis-2.001.4%1st Place
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12.56University of California at Davis-2.190.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Ring | 17.5% | 17.5% | 16.0% | 12.2% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Katherine Olsen | 17.6% | 15.1% | 16.3% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 11.7% | 12.7% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 10.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adam Leddy | 12.8% | 11.6% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Conor Kim | 15.2% | 15.2% | 12.9% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emma Feasey | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Brayden Money | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 2.7% | 1.5% |
| Mason Read | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 9.6% |
| Colin Thompson | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 6.2% |
| Conrad Kistler | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Teresa Dang | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 4.2% |
| Orion Spatafora | 1.6% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 7.2% |
| Claire Desbaillets | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 16.8% | 25.5% |
| Sam Dudley | 1.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 15.9% | 18.8% |
| Alexander Lohan | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 17.8% | 23.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.