Race 3B

ocean-county-spring-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

63.6%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Stefano Palamara 36.8% 26.6% 19.1% 10.7% 4.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jessica Schaefer 11.5% 13.2% 17.1% 16.0% 13.3% 12.1% 8.6% 4.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.1%
Kennedy Jones 25.4% 26.2% 20.4% 14.2% 8.4% 3.1% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Erin Splaine 2.3% 2.9% 3.9% 4.7% 7.0% 7.7% 12.3% 13.3% 15.1% 14.2% 16.6%
Sarah Ward 2.1% 3.3% 3.3% 5.1% 7.8% 8.2% 9.9% 9.8% 14.6% 17.4% 18.5%
Benjamin Knisely 3.8% 4.5% 7.5% 8.4% 10.7% 11.5% 12.7% 13.1% 12.1% 8.5% 7.2%
Zachary Brooks 4.2% 4.3% 4.1% 8.0% 8.8% 11.6% 12.3% 14.4% 11.7% 10.7% 9.9%
Gil Hankinson 2.5% 2.6% 3.1% 5.8% 8.2% 11.7% 8.9% 13.0% 12.8% 14.5% 16.9%
Mason Chapman 6.3% 8.8% 11.0% 14.3% 13.8% 13.4% 12.1% 8.2% 6.5% 3.9% 1.7%
Charlotte Shaw 4.0% 5.8% 7.0% 9.2% 10.9% 11.8% 11.8% 13.5% 11.4% 9.8% 4.8%
Nicholas Gould 1.1% 1.8% 3.5% 3.6% 6.4% 7.6% 9.1% 9.1% 13.3% 20.2% 24.3%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.