Race 4B

ocean-county-spring-open

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

66.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Stefano Palamara 34.9% 27.4% 19.2% 9.7% 4.8% 2.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennedy Jones 25.9% 25.6% 19.8% 13.7% 7.4% 4.7% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jessica Schaefer 11.9% 10.0% 17.3% 14.3% 15.8% 11.8% 8.5% 5.8% 3.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2%
Sarah Ward 1.3% 2.6% 3.2% 4.2% 5.5% 7.9% 9.3% 8.7% 11.9% 13.3% 14.9% 17.2%
Benjamin Knisely 3.3% 4.9% 6.7% 8.3% 10.4% 9.5% 10.5% 11.4% 10.9% 10.2% 8.6% 5.3%
Mason Chapman 6.6% 8.8% 10.0% 12.3% 12.8% 13.2% 12.1% 8.7% 6.6% 5.0% 3.1% 0.8%
Zachary Brooks 3.2% 4.3% 4.2% 7.5% 7.8% 10.5% 9.7% 10.8% 13.2% 11.1% 9.0% 8.7%
Kate Faranetta 2.8% 4.7% 4.8% 7.8% 7.8% 8.4% 11.1% 11.7% 12.0% 10.6% 10.5% 7.8%
Erin Splaine 2.4% 2.3% 3.5% 5.8% 7.2% 8.4% 10.5% 11.6% 11.0% 12.3% 14.0% 11.0%
Charlotte Shaw 4.1% 4.9% 5.6% 8.8% 10.1% 11.1% 10.4% 11.7% 10.5% 10.0% 8.1% 4.7%
Gil Hankinson 2.4% 1.8% 3.3% 4.1% 6.3% 7.9% 8.7% 10.1% 10.0% 13.4% 15.2% 16.8%
Nicholas Gould 1.2% 2.7% 2.4% 3.5% 4.1% 3.8% 6.3% 8.7% 10.4% 13.3% 16.1% 27.5%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.