Race 3B

admiral-cup

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

29.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
John Stokes 10.4% 10.1% 9.0% 9.5% 6.9% 6.8% 8.4% 6.1% 6.6% 7.3% 5.3% 4.9% 3.1% 3.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Johnny Norfleet 7.1% 6.8% 8.6% 6.3% 6.7% 6.9% 6.7% 6.4% 7.3% 7.6% 7.1% 5.7% 5.7% 4.8% 3.4% 2.6% 0.3%
Andrew Sommer 6.7% 6.6% 8.0% 8.9% 7.2% 6.3% 7.5% 5.8% 6.3% 5.9% 6.1% 6.9% 5.7% 5.3% 3.3% 2.2% 1.3%
Kevin Laube 8.5% 9.8% 6.9% 6.4% 7.3% 8.4% 7.5% 7.8% 5.2% 7.7% 5.5% 5.9% 3.9% 3.8% 3.0% 1.7% 0.7%
William Haeger 9.8% 8.9% 8.5% 8.9% 8.3% 7.7% 7.3% 7.9% 5.7% 4.8% 5.3% 3.4% 4.9% 3.5% 3.1% 1.7% 0.3%
John Wallace 2.9% 2.3% 3.5% 3.1% 2.6% 4.3% 3.3% 6.5% 4.8% 5.7% 5.1% 6.8% 8.4% 10.4% 9.8% 10.9% 9.6%
Evan Siepert 3.0% 3.1% 3.5% 2.9% 3.2% 4.0% 3.4% 3.4% 5.2% 6.2% 5.7% 8.3% 6.9% 10.9% 12.1% 9.4% 8.8%
Austen Anderson 7.1% 9.0% 7.3% 6.7% 8.1% 6.1% 5.6% 6.8% 7.6% 6.2% 4.6% 6.3% 6.0% 4.9% 4.2% 2.8% 0.7%
Ted Green 2.4% 2.9% 3.2% 2.4% 3.8% 3.4% 4.4% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 5.2% 6.9% 8.5% 8.0% 11.6% 11.6% 11.2%
Devin Laviano 3.2% 4.3% 4.0% 5.0% 5.1% 5.5% 5.5% 6.1% 6.6% 6.8% 6.8% 6.7% 6.4% 9.7% 6.6% 7.1% 4.6%
Alex Cook 7.5% 6.8% 6.2% 6.6% 6.3% 7.4% 7.2% 5.5% 6.6% 8.0% 6.1% 7.1% 6.5% 4.5% 4.5% 2.3% 0.9%
Alden Sonnenfeldt 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 2.7% 2.5% 1.8% 3.1% 2.8% 3.6% 2.7% 5.9% 4.2% 7.0% 5.5% 10.6% 18.8% 23.6%
Matthew Wefer 8.8% 7.1% 6.9% 7.2% 8.7% 9.7% 7.2% 7.2% 7.5% 6.3% 5.5% 4.6% 4.0% 3.9% 3.2% 1.6% 0.6%
Mildred Conroy 1.2% 1.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 2.6% 3.2% 2.6% 2.6% 3.9% 4.3% 5.8% 6.5% 10.6% 16.4% 32.7%
Dillon Paiva 9.2% 8.3% 7.4% 7.7% 7.5% 6.2% 7.0% 6.1% 7.4% 7.1% 7.5% 5.9% 3.9% 3.7% 2.5% 1.8% 0.8%
Samuel Stokes 6.7% 7.2% 8.3% 7.1% 9.5% 8.4% 6.5% 7.8% 7.1% 4.9% 7.2% 5.2% 5.2% 3.1% 3.6% 1.7% 0.5%
SEAN Ross 3.7% 4.0% 5.3% 6.9% 4.7% 5.6% 6.8% 5.6% 5.1% 5.5% 7.2% 6.9% 8.1% 8.3% 6.3% 6.8% 3.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.