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📊 Prediction Accuracy
63.6%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
11
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+3.29vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.58+1.79vs Predicted
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3University of California at Irvine0.43+1.07vs Predicted
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4University of California at Los Angeles-0.96+2.73vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.76-1.58vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.74-2.70vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.47-0.99vs Predicted
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8University of California at Davis-2.16+0.94vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48-1.21vs Predicted
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10University of California at Davis-2.00-1.29vs Predicted
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11University of California at Davis-2.19-2.04vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.29Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8312.7%1st Place
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3.79University of California at Santa Cruz0.5816.1%1st Place
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4.07University of California at Irvine0.4314.6%1st Place
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6.73University of California at Los Angeles-0.963.5%1st Place
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3.42University of California at Santa Cruz0.7620.9%1st Place
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3.3University of California at Berkeley0.7421.6%1st Place
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6.01Cal Poly University S.L.O.-0.475.2%1st Place
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8.94University of California at Davis-2.161.1%1st Place
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7.79Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.481.9%1st Place
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8.71University of California at Davis-2.001.4%1st Place
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8.96University of California at Davis-2.191.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Kisling | 12.7% | 12.4% | 13.9% | 14.8% | 14.5% | 14.4% | 10.1% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Conor Kim | 16.1% | 16.4% | 15.7% | 16.7% | 12.8% | 10.0% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Adam Leddy | 14.6% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 15.1% | 14.9% | 12.7% | 8.0% | 4.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Conrad Kistler | 3.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 15.8% | 17.2% | 15.2% | 8.8% | 3.5% |
| Andrew Ring | 20.9% | 17.7% | 16.8% | 14.9% | 13.5% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Katherine Olsen | 21.6% | 20.1% | 17.3% | 14.5% | 11.8% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ximena Greatorex | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 14.2% | 17.0% | 15.8% | 9.7% | 4.5% | 1.3% |
| Claire Desbaillets | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 10.7% | 16.5% | 22.6% | 30.3% |
| Colin Thompson | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 17.8% | 18.8% | 17.2% | 9.8% |
| Sam Dudley | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 17.3% | 23.4% | 23.9% |
| Alexander Lohan | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 9.4% | 17.1% | 22.2% | 30.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.