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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College4.05+5.53vs Predicted
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2Tufts University4.08+4.49vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston4.00+3.84vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+3.48vs Predicted
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5Harvard University4.17+1.27vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University4.01+0.94vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+0.39vs Predicted
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8Stanford University4.05-1.49vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College3.00+1.46vs Predicted
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10Cornell University2.48+2.32vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.34-1.69vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.02-1.63vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90-5.86vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.29-1.36vs Predicted
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15University of South Florida3.48-6.15vs Predicted
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16St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-5.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.53Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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6.49Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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6.84College of Charleston4.000.1%1st Place
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7.48Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.27Harvard University4.170.1%1st Place
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6.94Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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7.39Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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6.51Stanford University4.050.1%1st Place
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10.46SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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12.32Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
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9.31U. S. Naval Academy3.340.1%1st Place
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10.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.020.0%1st Place
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7.14Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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12.64Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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8.85University of South Florida3.480.1%1st Place
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10.46St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Wefer | 8.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| William Haeger | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Samuel Stokes | 9.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Austen Anderson | 6.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| John Stokes | 9.3% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Dillon Paiva | 7.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Kevin Laube | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Ted Green | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 10.7% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 11.6% | 18.8% | 24.9% |
| Devin Laviano | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 5.1% |
| Evan Siepert | 3.4% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 12.0% | 10.2% |
| Andrew Sommer | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 0.4% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 17.2% | 30.6% |
| SEAN Ross | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 2.7% |
| John Wallace | 2.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 11.1% | 10.8% | 9.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.