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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87+6.16vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.90+5.17vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston4.00+3.81vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+6.47vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College3.00+5.55vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.34+3.35vs Predicted
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7Tufts University4.08-0.32vs Predicted
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8Harvard University4.17-1.89vs Predicted
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9Stanford University4.05-2.38vs Predicted
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10University of South Florida3.48-1.12vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.87-3.63vs Predicted
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12Washington College2.29+0.66vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University4.01-6.20vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.02-3.67vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College4.05-8.27vs Predicted
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16Cornell University2.48-3.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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7.17Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.900.1%1st Place
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6.81College of Charleston4.000.1%1st Place
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10.47St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.0%1st Place
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10.55SUNY Maritime College3.000.0%1st Place
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9.35U. S. Naval Academy3.340.0%1st Place
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6.68Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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6.11Harvard University4.170.1%1st Place
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6.62Stanford University4.050.1%1st Place
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8.88University of South Florida3.480.1%1st Place
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7.37Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.870.1%1st Place
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12.66Washington College2.290.0%1st Place
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6.8Old Dominion University4.010.1%1st Place
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10.33U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.020.0%1st Place
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6.73Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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12.32Cornell University2.480.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austen Anderson | 7.0% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 2.7% | 0.8% |
| Andrew Sommer | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 0.7% |
| Samuel Stokes | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| John Wallace | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 10.7% |
| Ted Green | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 9.3% | 13.9% | 9.4% |
| Devin Laviano | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 5.2% |
| William Haeger | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 7.4% | 8.9% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| John Stokes | 10.8% | 11.1% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Kevin Laube | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| SEAN Ross | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.0% |
| Johnny Norfleet | 8.4% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.7% |
| Mildred Conroy | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 10.7% | 14.6% | 33.3% |
| Dillon Paiva | 7.8% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.2% |
| Evan Siepert | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 10.8% | 9.2% |
| Matthew Wefer | 9.2% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Alden Sonnenfeldt | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 13.6% | 15.8% | 24.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.