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📊 Prediction Accuracy
58.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College2.11+2.26vs Predicted
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2Hampton University1.77+1.77vs Predicted
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3William and Mary-0.96+5.95vs Predicted
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4Princeton University2.35-1.16vs Predicted
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5Drexel University1.35-0.36vs Predicted
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6University of Delaware-0.82+2.76vs Predicted
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7University of Virginia0.70-1.18vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University1.63-3.99vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook-0.13-1.55vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University-0.03-2.76vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-1.39-1.25vs Predicted
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12U. S. Military Academy-3.07-0.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.26Washington College2.110.2%1st Place
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3.77Hampton University1.770.1%1st Place
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8.95William and Mary-0.960.0%1st Place
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2.84Princeton University2.350.3%1st Place
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4.64Drexel University1.350.1%1st Place
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8.76University of Delaware-0.820.0%1st Place
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5.82University of Virginia0.700.1%1st Place
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4.01Christopher Newport University1.630.2%1st Place
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7.45SUNY Stony Brook-0.130.0%1st Place
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7.24Syracuse University-0.030.0%1st Place
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9.75University of Rochester-1.390.0%1st Place
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11.51U. S. Military Academy-3.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stewart Gurnell | 19.4% | 19.7% | 20.0% | 16.7% | 11.6% | 7.7% | 3.4% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 14.9% | 15.9% | 16.6% | 18.0% | 13.5% | 11.2% | 6.6% | 2.8% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Elizabeth van der Voort | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 19.5% | 23.3% | 22.9% | 3.6% |
| Connor Mraz | 26.0% | 25.7% | 16.7% | 13.7% | 10.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 10.1% | 10.4% | 11.8% | 14.6% | 16.2% | 15.6% | 10.4% | 7.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Pearce Bragaw | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 18.0% | 22.5% | 20.1% | 3.8% |
| Andrew Montague | 5.9% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 12.4% | 16.6% | 15.1% | 14.5% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Brian Fox | 15.7% | 13.4% | 14.9% | 14.8% | 14.8% | 12.4% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Strein | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 10.2% | 16.8% | 19.7% | 18.4% | 11.4% | 5.4% | 0.4% |
| Alexa Whitman | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 15.1% | 17.9% | 17.4% | 11.5% | 5.4% | 0.4% |
| Kasym Qazi | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 13.0% | 19.6% | 35.9% | 12.0% |
| Raymond Shattuck | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 4.6% | 9.2% | 79.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.