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📊 Prediction Accuracy
66.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Princeton University2.35+1.83vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University1.63+2.06vs Predicted
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3Drexel University1.35+1.61vs Predicted
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4University of Delaware-0.82+4.80vs Predicted
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5Washington College2.11-1.77vs Predicted
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6Hampton University1.77-2.20vs Predicted
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7SUNY Stony Brook-0.13+0.45vs Predicted
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8University of Virginia0.70-2.21vs Predicted
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9Syracuse University-0.03-1.77vs Predicted
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10William and Mary-0.96-1.07vs Predicted
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11University of Rochester-1.39-1.23vs Predicted
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12U. S. Military Academy-3.07-0.50vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.83Princeton University2.350.3%1st Place
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4.06Christopher Newport University1.630.1%1st Place
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4.61Drexel University1.350.1%1st Place
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8.8University of Delaware-0.820.0%1st Place
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3.23Washington College2.110.2%1st Place
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3.8Hampton University1.770.2%1st Place
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7.45SUNY Stony Brook-0.130.0%1st Place
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5.79University of Virginia0.700.1%1st Place
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7.23Syracuse University-0.030.0%1st Place
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8.93William and Mary-0.960.0%1st Place
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9.77University of Rochester-1.390.0%1st Place
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11.5U. S. Military Academy-3.070.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Mraz | 27.4% | 20.8% | 21.4% | 13.5% | 9.6% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brian Fox | 12.0% | 15.7% | 14.2% | 17.4% | 15.0% | 11.9% | 8.4% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Toby Sullivan | 10.7% | 9.7% | 12.7% | 13.4% | 16.1% | 16.8% | 11.1% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Pearce Bragaw | 0.6% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 14.8% | 18.9% | 22.7% | 19.5% | 3.3% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 21.2% | 21.4% | 18.7% | 13.7% | 11.0% | 7.8% | 4.2% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Valerio Palamara | 15.3% | 16.3% | 15.2% | 16.2% | 14.6% | 12.5% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brendan Strein | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 14.6% | 17.0% | 18.5% | 12.9% | 6.8% | 1.3% |
| Andrew Montague | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 15.9% | 16.3% | 13.9% | 8.4% | 3.1% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Alexa Whitman | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 7.9% | 10.9% | 17.5% | 18.2% | 17.1% | 12.0% | 3.3% | 0.3% |
| Elizabeth van der Voort | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 12.8% | 16.2% | 25.0% | 22.3% | 3.8% |
| Kasym Qazi | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 12.8% | 18.6% | 36.7% | 12.3% |
| Raymond Shattuck | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.6% | 4.5% | 10.2% | 78.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.