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📊 Prediction Accuracy
31.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Virginia3.54+5.14vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.38+4.70vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.79+2.34vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.37+2.91vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.38+1.79vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.48+0.52vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.26+0.33vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University3.33-1.22vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy2.79-0.21vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.69+2.53vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.02-3.02vs Predicted
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13Fordham University2.73-3.92vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland1.98-2.38vs Predicted
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15University of Pennsylvania2.79-6.27vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.85-4.84vs Predicted
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18University of Virginia1.69-5.40vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.14University of Virginia3.540.1%1st Place
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6.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.380.1%1st Place
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5.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.790.1%1st Place
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6.91U. S. Naval Academy3.370.1%1st Place
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6.79Georgetown University3.380.1%1st Place
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6.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.480.1%1st Place
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7.33St. Mary's College of Maryland3.260.1%1st Place
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6.78Georgetown University3.330.1%1st Place
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8.79U. S. Naval Academy2.790.0%1st Place
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12.53University of Pennsylvania1.690.0%1st Place
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7.98U. S. Merchant Marine Academy3.020.1%1st Place
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9.08Fordham University2.730.0%1st Place
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11.62St. Mary's College of Maryland1.980.0%1st Place
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8.73University of Pennsylvania2.790.1%1st Place
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12.16Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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12.6University of Virginia1.690.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gordon Wolcott | 8.8% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Ike Babbitt | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Sam Padnos | 13.7% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Nathaniel Sabatt | 7.5% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Hugh McBride | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Ian Holtzworth | 7.7% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Gordon Lamphere | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| Daniel Eichler | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| James Allsopp | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 3.6% |
| William Pilling | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 12.7% | 20.2% | 24.5% |
| Evan Siepert | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Alexander Sachs | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 3.6% |
| Ainsley Thomson | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 10.5% | 13.4% | 15.7% | 14.9% |
| Amanda Johnson | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 2.4% |
| John O'Riordan | 2.3% | 1.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 13.6% | 18.4% | 19.7% |
| Chris Kennedy | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 12.5% | 15.7% | 27.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.